What is Upstream for a State?

In 2019, I remember thinking that a collapse was likely.

It’s a persistent idea- that order tends to flow toward chaos. That the tightly coupled tends to loosen.

However, with many states, we see the opposite.

Societies tend toward centralization.

Once centralized, they almost never go back to a looser state.

From East Francia to the Benin Empire, across centuries and continents, we see the same patient descent toward order, never quite flowing back toward its source.

What gravity guides this persistent journey?

And why, like a river seeking the sea, does power seem to know only one direction?